Re: comments on Bernanke speech

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Posted by Winslow R. (71.138.60.22) on 23:37:36 11/29/07

In Reply to: comments on Bernanke speech posted by Warren Mosler

THIS IS THE SUM OF THE DATA- NOT CLEARLY WORSE AND NOT CLEARLY WORSE
THAN FORECAST. MY GUESS IS Q4 IS THEIR Q4 FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED
UP. AND THE CONTINUAL UPWARD REVISIONS OF Q3 AND NOW Q4 HAVE TO BE
INFLUENCING THEIR VIEW OF Q1 FORECASTS AND BEYOND AS WELL.

My indicator for 4th quarter growth stalled the week of Oct 10th. To hedge, the growth in the first two weeks was sufficient for 2% growth for the whole quarter.

09/26/2007 1369.7
10/03/2007 1387.1
10/10/2007 1401.0
10/17/2007 1402.0
10/24/2007 1391.3
10/31/2007 1396.5
11/07/2007 1394.7
11/14/2007 1400.5

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Subject:	Re: comments on Bernanke speech
Comments:	: THIS IS THE SUM OF THE DATA- NOT CLEARLY WORSE AND NOT CLEARLY WORSE : THAN FORECAST. MY GUESS IS Q4 IS THEIR Q4 FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED : UP. AND THE CONTINUAL UPWARD REVISIONS OF Q3 AND NOW Q4 HAVE TO BE : INFLUENCING THEIR VIEW OF Q1 FORECASTS AND BEYOND AS WELL. : : My indicator for 4th quarter growth stalled the week of Oct 10th. To hedge, the growth in the first two weeks was sufficient for 2% growth for the whole quarter. : : 09/26/2007 1369.7 : 10/03/2007 1387.1 : 10/10/2007 1401.0 : 10/17/2007 1402.0 : 10/24/2007 1391.3 : 10/31/2007 1396.5 : 11/07/2007 1394.7 : 11/14/2007 1400.5 : : :
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